When we look at Taiwan's demographic data, a deep chill can't help but set in. The alarm bells about fertility have not only not stopped, but have become even more shrill due to new changes in the social climate. This is not only a long-lasting "demographic winter", but it is also compounded by recent social events that have cast a huge shadow over the sense of security in the child-rearing environment.
According to the latest official statistics released by the Ministry of the Interior at the beginning of this year (2025), Taiwan welcomed only 134,856 newborns in the year 2024, which is not only a record low, but also the ninth consecutive year of negative growth. This figure is not only a record low, but also the ninth consecutive year of negative growth. This translates into a crude birth rate of 5.76 per 1,000 live births in 2024.
Although the final "Total Fertility Rate" (TFR) for 2024 has yet to be officially calculated and released, with reference to the already low level of 0.87 in 2023, and with the number of births bottoming out again in 2024, it is almost certain that the TFR will continue to be at this very low level in 2024, putting Taiwan at the bottom of the global list. Looking ahead to this year, the National Development Council (NDC), in its latest population projections, forecasts that the total fertility rate (mid-projection) in 2025 will also be only 0.89 - an extremely dangerous signal, well below the 2.1 needed to maintain population stability.
For a long time, we have been accustomed to attributing the low fertility rate to the heavy pressures faced by the younger generation: high housing and childcare costs, freezing salaries, long working hours, inflexible workplace culture, and changing personal values. These factors continue to have a profound impact on people's reproductive choices, creating an economic and social barrier that is difficult to overcome.
However, what is more chilling than cold figures and traditional pressures is the new shadow of "insecurity" that has been cast over the path of parenting in recent years. The recent spate of horrific child abuse cases, especially the "loyalty case", has revealed a shocking gap from personal negligence to institutionalization, as if a deep crack has been made in the cornerstone of society's trust.
When nannies and childcare organizations, which are supposed to provide professional care and a safe haven, and even the social welfare referral system, which is supposed to be the last line of defense and has been entrusted with credibility (such as the role and responsibility of the Alliance for Children's Welfare in this case, which has aroused widespread doubts), are exposed to potential risks and regulatory failures, a strong sense of mistrust spreads rapidly. This has led countless families considering having children, or who already have young children, to ask repeatedly, "Can my child be safely cared for? and "Who else can I trust? Can this system really protect the most vulnerable of lives?"
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Therefore, the fertility crisis in Taiwan in 2025 is no longer just a problem of "not being able to afford to give birth and not being able to afford to raise a family" in terms of resource allocation and economic burden. It has profoundly evolved into a double dilemma that overlaps security anxiety and trust crisis-a critical situation in which the young generation, even after crossing the economic threshold, may " not dare to have children and not be able to trust them " due to deep-rooted fear and mistrust of the system.
This shadow under the freezing point is a reality that we cannot avoid. It warns us that if we do not fundamentally understand and resolve these intertwined pressures and crises, the future of Taiwan society will face unimaginable challenges. In the next article, we will dismantle these multiple shackles in depth and explore what economic and social factors, as well as the magnified "trust crisis," have woven this big net that makes the young generation "afraid to give birth.
